Polls show Obama trailing Hillary in party nomination

By KEVIN J. KELLEY

With the first US presidential preliminary contest still 11 months away, Barack Obama appears to be trailing Hillary Clinton by a substantial margin in the race for the Democratic Party’s 2008 nomination.
A recent poll shows Mrs Clinton, a senator from New York, with 43 per cent support among Democratic voters nationwide. Mr Obama, a Kenyan-American representing the state of Illinois in the Senate, is running second with 15 per cent. John Edwards, the Democrats’ nominee for vice president in 2004, is third with 12 per cent.
The results are similar but more auspicious for Senator Obama in surveys taken in Iowa and New Hampshire, the states that will hold the first presidential primary elections early in 2008. Senator Clinton leads in both states with 35 per cent. But Senator Obama runs a fairly close second in New Hampshire with 21 per cent, although he musters only 14 per cent support in Iowa.
These findings reflect Senator Clinton’s greater prominence on the American political scene. In addition to spending eight years in the White House as first lady, she has been a member of the US Senate since 2000. She also benefits from the continuing popularity of her husband, who is expected to play a major role in her presidential campaign.
Senator Obama’s showing in the polls can be interpreted as highly encouraging, however.
He has served in the Senate only two years, and was almost entirely unknown outside Chicago, his home city, prior to the acclaimed speech he gave at the Democrats’ presidential convention in 2004. Senator Obama’s lead over Mr Edwards, a familiar figure to many Americans, suggests his poll ratings may rise substantially as the presidential race gains greater national attention.
Many political analysts believe Senator Obama does have sufficient time to build the kind of campaign infrastructure and fund-raising network that the Clintons have had in place for 15 years. These commentators expect the 45-year-old son of a deceased Kenyan economist to capitalise on his considerable charisma in the coming months.
Senator Obama is already demonstrating great appeal among young voters. Thousands of US university students turned out last month for an Obama-for-president rally, with most of the attendees promising to work as volunteers in their respective states.
The newcomer is also likely to show strength when the candidates file their initial 2007 fundraising reports in April. In this early test of candidates’ viability, some political experts are suggesting that Senator Obama may even exceed the amount of money Senator Clinton is able to raise in the first quarter of this year.
Because race plays such a central role in American history and politics, speculation abounds as to whether Senator Obama, whose mother was white, can win votes across the colour line. A commentator writing in the February 7 New York Times suggests Senator Obama will succeed in attracting white support — just as former Secretary of State Colin Powell, an African-American, did in presidential voter surveys in 1996.
More recent polls indicate that up to 95 per cent of white Americans say they would be willing to support a qualified black candidate for president.
Some analysts suggest Senator Obama could do well among white voters, who account for about 80 per cent of the American electorate, because he, like Mr Powell, is not viewed as combative on racial issues. Because he is not a descendant of African slaves, Mr Obama does not raise demands for compensation for past racial injustices, as do some black American politicians.
But Senator Obama is apparently facing challenges from Senator Clinton in securing what many analysts assume should be his electoral base among African-Americans.
A poll conducted recently by The Washington Post and ABC News found Mrs Clinton to be favoured by 60 per cent of black voters, compared to 20 per cent for Mr Obama. That showing reflects Senator Clinton’s greater familiarity among African-Americans as well as the esteem which Bill Clinton continues to enjoy in the black community. Because of his strong civil-rights stands and identification with African-American aspirations, Mr Clinton was sometimes referred to as “the first black president.”
Senator Obama’s lagging performance in the Post-ABC poll may also be attributable to the view among some African-Americans that he is not one of them.
African-American essayist Debra Dickerson recently declared in remarks quoted in The New York Times that “Obama isn’t black” in an American racial context. “I’ve got nothing but love for the brother, but we don’t have anything in common,” said Ms Dickerson. “His father was African. His mother was a white woman. He grew up with white grandparents.” Senator Obama’s Kenyan heritage may not be regarded positively by some US-born blacks who view themselves as having little in common with immigrants from Africa.
That perspective was offered in the February 1 Times story by Calvin Lanier, an African-American barber in Washington, DC.
“When you think of a president, you think of an American,” said Mr Lanier, 58, who is still considering whether to support Mr Obama. “We’ve been taught that a president should come from right here — born, raised, bred, fed in America. To go outside and bring somebody in from another nationality, now that doesn’t feel right to some people.”
In 2000, Mr Obama lost a race in Chicago for a seat in the US House of Representatives partly because his African-American opponent, Congressman Bobby Rush, depicted him as out-of-touch with black voters. Mr Rush emphasised Mr Obama’s education at Harvard, an elite US university, and his residence in a racially mixed but largely affluent section of Chicago.
Senator Obama has also yet to receive endorsements for his presidential campaign from either of the two most prominent African-American civil-rights leaders: Rev Jesse Jackson and Rev Al Sharpton.
Rev Jackson has said, however, that he is inclined to support Mr Obama. And Jesse Jackson Jr, another US congressman from Chicago, has already endorsed Senator Obama for president, as has John Lewis, a hero of the civil-rights movement who represents a Georgia district in the US House.
Some of the black Americans who say they view Senator Obama warily may be converted to his cause as the campaign proceeds. Ms Dickerson, for example, added in the Times article she is “willing to adopt him.” Senator Obama “married black (and) he acts black,” Ms Dickerson noted.
The senator’s wife, Michelle, is an African-American, and Mr Obama identifies himself as African-American.
Carol Swain, a black professor of political science at Vanderbilt University in the US, suggests African-Americans will rally behind Senator Obama because “he has a track record for being concerned about people who are poor, and it seems to be genuine,” she told the Times.
Senator Obama is “black enough,” African-American columnist Leonard Pitts Jr recently wrote.
“Assume for a minute Obama didn’t have a famous face,” Mr Pitts urged his readers. “Assume he was just another brother tooling down Main Street. Do you really think the cop who pulls him over for no good reason is going to change his tune if he is told Obama’s mama is white?
“Oh. Sorry, Mr Obama. I didn’t realise you were biracial. Have a good day.’”
Another element of uncertainty involves the sympathies of African-American women. Are they more likely to support Mrs Clinton, who could become the first female American president, or Mr Obama, who could become the first black American president?
“With Senator Obama in the race, Senator Clinton will have to work harder to lock down black voters who might otherwise have been hers for the taking,” observes Thomas Schaller, a political science professor recently interviewed by The Baltimore Sun. “For his part,” Mr Schaller added, Mr Obama would be wise not to underestimate the potential for female solidarity to trump race.”